ToO Annual Fantasy Football - Year 4!

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bookworm
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Post by bookworm »

Week 10:
Player Moves:

Benched Foles for Rodgers
Benched LaFell for Nelson
Dropped Redskins D/ST for Dolphins D/ST
Dropped McKinnon for Martavis Bryant (PIT) WR
Benched Bengals D/ST for Dolphins D/ST
Dropped Foles
Dropped Bengals D/ST
Added Dwayne Bowe (KC) WR
Benched Miller for Bryant
Benched Kelce for Bennett
Added Colts D/ST
Dropped Robinson for Chargers D/ST
Benched Bennett for Kelce



Box Score:

bookworm:
Aaron Rodgers - 36
Andre Ellington - 9
Mark Ingram - 13
Martavis Bryant - 20
Jordy Nelson - 27
Antonio Brown - 3
Travis Kelce - 1
Dolphins D/ST - 6
Cody Parkey - 9
Total: 124

AE:
Ben Roethlisberger - 13
Le'Veon Bell - 6
Justin Forsett - 23
Calvin Johnson - 17
Mike Wallace - 11
Mohamed Sanu - 2
Heath Miller - 2
Eagles D/ST - 31
Mason Crosby - 15
Total: 120
-- 12 Nov 2014 03:21 pm --

This week was incredible.
Week 1 - vs Seattle King's (gia) 68-84
Week 2 - at Bench Coolers (Eugene) 126-75
Week 3 - at American Eagles (AE) 80-63
Week 4 - at Constantinople Chrysostoms (JC) 127-83
Week 5 - vs Winoka Warriors (Laura) 52-80
Week 6 - at Texas Staleys (KF) 115-91
Week 7 - vs Gainesville Behemoths (EK) 49-98
Week 8 - at Seattle King's (gia) 126-99
Week 9 - vs Bench Coolers (Eugene) 80-115
Week 10 - vs American Eagles (AE) 124-120
Week 11 - vs Constantinople Chrysostoms (JC)
Week 12 - at Winoka Warriors (Laura)
Week 13 - vs Texas Staleys (KF)
Week 14 - at Gainesville Behemoths (EK)
Week 15 - vs Seattle King's (gia)
Before I go into the review I have to mention something important. I don’t mean to put a damper on AE’s incredible effort this week, but I have to clarify one thing to everyone going ‘Woah AE, just barely missed it!’ This wasn’t as close as the score makes it look. It shouldn’t have been anyway.
This week I was slapped with the same ‘punishment for success’ I ran into a few weeks ago. My QB was so thoroughly dominant that he didn’t play in a full quarter and a half of his game. If he had, the score would be nowhere near this tight. It’s so frustrating; you should really be given some kind of compensation for at the very least each quarter your QB sits out (provided of course the reason for the benching is a dominant performance and not a poor one or an injury) because the message otherwise is ‘Your selection was entirely 100% right, you made such a great choice that you stop getting points for picking him!’ It’s so stupid. In a week that ended this incredibly close that missing quarter could have easily been the difference in the outcome.

Anyway, on to the breakdown. This week was projected to be pretty tight through the day, then after Sunday night not even close, but in the end was even tighter than originally predicted.
Despite some disappointing performances early on Sunday I was pretty confident overall because I expected a dominating display by my dynamic duo Rodgers and Nelson on Sunday night, but even my lofty expectations were exceeded. Shattered, actually, as Rodgers threw six touchdowns, two to Nelson, in just the first half! But then as I said I was punished for my success as Rodgers only went out for a few series in the second half before calling it a night early. That made things interesting at the end, because the backup QB wasn’t going to throw very much so it effectively ended Nelson’s night as well, and it also meant Packer drives were suddenly more likely to end in field goals which was significant because AE had their kicker. So that closed things up a little bit, but I wasn’t worried about it because when everything settled the outcome was all but set.
AE had the Eagles D on Monday night and they were projected to get only five points. I didn’t agree with that, I thought it was too low, but even if you allowed them a good amount more I still came out with the edge by a fairly solid margin. So whatever went down, the ultimate outcome was not in question. Until the game. AE’s group had a mindblowing five turnovers, two taken for touchdowns, to finish more than six times their projection and make the finale score the nail biter it turned out to be.

So I take nothing away from AE, this was an awesome matchup, but it was much closer than it would or should have been.
What saved me in the end was that I had a strategic plan at work in forming my lineup this week. I figured AE was going to grab up Roethlisberger after he had those back to back monster games, and indeed he did, so I doubled down on my Steelers receivers in order to counter whatever he was going to get. That way if Ben kept up his huge numbers I was matching them because he was throwing and my guys were catching, or if they finally came back down to earth AE and I would have a mutual bust, either way we stayed even and I could pull ahead with my other positions. And that’s exactly how the day played out. It's a really good thing I did that too because the new WR I picked up was the one that ended up getting any points, if I had stayed with only the one I already had the entire thing would have gone differently as he had a shockingly poor performance which was completely and unpredictably out of character.
Last edited by bookworm on Wed Nov 12, 2014 3:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post by American Eagle »

Wow. No one puts more effort into this league than you, bookworm... I'm not surprised that you're winning.
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Post by bookworm »

Yeah, I believe I mentioned before that I imagine I’m a real coach running a real team. That’s why I have so much fun with this every year.
I’ve been doing this long enough now that I’m finally transitioning out of the clueless phase and beginning to have a decent understanding of how it all works. That growing comprehension combined with some luck here and there is why this has been far and away my best season yet! \:D/
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Post by John Chrysostom »

You have to take the risk of your QB being out, I mean the same thing can happen with RB and WR too. Also a dominant QB who sits out for a quarter might still score more than a just okay QB who plays the entire game.

Anyway, looking forward to our game this week. It is also suppose to be a close one.
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Post by bookworm »

John Chrysostom wrote:You have to take the risk of your QB being out, I mean the same thing can happen with RB and WR too.
It could, but it’s much more rare. If a team is dominating the QB is sure to sit, the other players will likely still be in the rotation at least to some extent. They could have a reduced workload for the rest of the game, but they’ll still have the opportunity to add on here and there. The QB is done for good.
John Chrysostom wrote:Also a dominant QB who sits out for a quarter might still score more than a just okay QB who plays the entire game.
Indeed they might, but that’s not the point. The QB who goes out has his night ended. It doesn’t matter how much he put up before that point, the problem is that after that point he will get nothing more. Sure he probably put up some great numbers to get to the position of being benched, but the point is if he hadn’t he would still be getting at least additional yardage through the rest of the game. He would still have the opportunity to get something more; he doesn’t on the bench.
John Chrysostom wrote:Anyway, looking forward to our game this week. It is also suppose to be a close one.
I have been looking forward to this game all season; closest projection this year so far, I can’t wait to see how it plays out!
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Post by Knight Fisher »

To be fair it really wasn't just Rodgers being dominate in the first quarter and a half. After that I couldn't tell since I stopped watching. And given what happened last year when he got hurt and was out for weeks pulling him was the only possible conclusion.
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Post by E II »

Bookworm overseen thinking about your complaint where they take qbs who are plaintiffs out in the fourth quarter.what if the left him in and he got knocked out for the season. Would you not then be saying, "it was the fourth quarter and the were ahaed by 45 they should have taken him out of the game"?
Just what came to mind at 12:40 AM so don't take it to seriously.
I am confused
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Post by John Chrysostom »

Going to be close this week, Julius Thomas failed me.
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Post by Laura Ingalls »

Still, just a point apart in the projections. That's pretty good. \:D/

My matchup with AE is going to be close too. My guys need to come through for me....
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Post by American Eagle »

Laura, neither of us look very good this week. >_>
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Post by Laura Ingalls »

Yeah, it's been pretty pitiful, hasn't it. :P 3, 3, 5, and the like AREN'T what I wanted to see....
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Post by bookworm »

Week 11:
Player Moves:

Dropped Miller for C.J. Anderson (DEN) RB
Dropped Chargers D/ST for Mychal Rivera (OAK) TE
Dropped Bowe for Alfred Blue (HOU) RB
Benched Ellington for Blue



Box Score:

bookworm:
Aaron Rodgers - 28
Mark Ingram - 9
Alfred Blue - 15
Martavis Bryant - 1
Jordy Nelson - 16
Antonio Brown - 15
Travis Kelce - 1
Dolphins D/ST - 9
Cody Parkey - 8
Total: 102

JC:
Peyton Manning - 15
Marshawn Lynch - 12
Eddie Lacy - 22
Steven Jackson - 4
T.Y. Hilton - 2
Mike Evans - 32
Julius Thomas - 0
Lions D/ST - 4
Nick Novak - 8
Total: 99
-- 19 Nov 2014 03:17 pm --

This is it, the Game of the Year: rematch with JC at full strength!
Week 1 - vs Seattle King's (gia) 68-84
Week 2 - at Bench Coolers (Eugene) 126-75
Week 3 - at American Eagles (AE) 80-63
Week 4 - at Constantinople Chrysostoms (JC) 127-83
Week 5 - vs Winoka Warriors (Laura) 52-80
Week 6 - at Texas Staleys (KF) 115-91
Week 7 - vs Gainesville Behemoths (EK) 49-98
Week 8 - at Seattle King's (gia) 126-99
Week 9 - vs Bench Coolers (Eugene) 80-115
Week 10 - vs American Eagles (AE) 124-120
Week 11 - vs Constantinople Chrysostoms (JC) 99-102
Week 12 - at Winoka Warriors (Laura)
Week 13 - vs Texas Staleys (KF)
Week 14 - at Gainesville Behemoths (EK)
Week 15 - vs Seattle King's (gia)
My team has had this weekend circled on our calendar all season, and wow did it ever fulfill expectations! Projected to win by one point going in, projected to lose by four points halfway through, projected to win by one point before Sunday night, won by three points in the end. Back to back victories by the narrowest of margins! I applaud JC for the marvelous effort I knew he would put up.

I want to offer some comfort to him in light of the circumstances of the final score, since I know from experience where his mind is likely to instinctively go. Because he lost one position to injury, the immediate reaction to the close score would be heartbreak in thinking that if that hadn’t happened he would have gotten the win. While that is technically true, you shouldn’t dwell on it that way. You need to look at what else happened that put you in that position. The reason the score was so close in spite of that injury was Evans’ ridiculous game. No one could have expected he would have that monstrous a performance. That score not only compensated for the zero from the injury, but gave the big surge to keep the score close.
If you bring Evans down to a reasonable number the outcome isn’t as upsetting as it seems now. He was projected to have a respectable 13, even allowing for overplay it’s unthinkable he would hit 30. If he had played a sensible game and your injury didn’t happen and Thomas got whatever he would have had you still would have most likely lost in the end.
What I’m trying to say is that the monster game had fluke timing that makes this look like more of a heartbreaker than it really was; don’t be discouraged, you put up a great match!

My managing to pull of the close win this week is the direct result of one single action. If I hadn’t made it I would have lost.
I had happened to be online when the news Foster was probably going to be out this week broke and I made the decision to grab his backup and switch him into my lineup. It was a truly decisive moment because I was taking a risk. I was comfortable with my guys, I’ve been watching them for weeks getting a feel for their performances. Blue was a complete stranger, not only to me but to everyone since he’s hardly done anything being behind Foster. But something in my gut told me to go for it.
I had a distinct feeling when I made the switch that this was what was going to decide the week. I somehow knew that this call would be what either gave me the edge to pull off a win or backfired to give me a loss. Either way I would look back on this one action as what decided things. And it did! If I hadn’t made that call I would have lost by 6 points. Put me on NFL Turning Point, this was my game’s defining moment.

What’s amazing about all this is that the reason this was my team’s Game of the Year was because I was finally going up against the Broncos players, but as it turned out the Broncos players were shockingly minimal factors in the scoring breakdown - yet the matchup still proved to be the anticipated headline event on the schedule!
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Post by Laura Ingalls »

Do you think I'll be able to do it this week - actually bring down the mighty bookworm?!?!? :thud: Tied at 94 the end of Sunday, Brees and Graham left for me, Ingram left for bookworm.....I think it's very possible! :dance:
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Post by American Eagle »

I think you're going to finally do it. :)
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Post by bookworm »

E II wrote:what if the left him in and he got knocked out for the season. Would you not then be saying, "it was the fourth quarter and the were ahaed by 45 they should have taken him out of the game"?
If it had ended up being the difference in the game, such as the four point margin vs. AE, no I wouldn’t. Next week is completely fresh, if your QB is out you pick a new one. Even if your regular QB is in some weeks you pick a new one. Because you’re starting over. It doesn’t change that in the previous game had he stayed in the outcome would have been different. It’s not a question of ‘a few more points in this game vs playing or not next game’ you don’t link the two that way, they’re separate situations. Each week stands alone. All you look at is ‘he would have gotten the handful of extra points I would have needed this week’ if you get what I mean. Yours is a valid thought though, if you’re looking all long term.

Edit:

Here’s a scoring question that’s been bugging me for a while.
The Defense loses fantasy points for the more game points they allow the opponent, right? Is that just a blanket tally of all points in the game though, or is it only points actually allowed by the Defense?
Because a defense could actually play a perfect game while the opponent still scores. Consider if the only points Team A gets in a game came off a picksix or a safety. That means Team B’s defense actually had a shutout, they allowed no scoring, the points were given up solely by the offense. Those scores should not be negative marks on a fantasy D, but I believe they are. Can someone confirm or deny?
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Post by Knight Fisher »

I can confirm from years of having the Bears. Points giving up on turnovers by the offense count against the Points given up by D/ST.
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Post by bookworm »

That's just absurd.
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Post by Knight Fisher »

I've been saying that for four years. But it does make sense from a certain point of view.
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Post by bookworm »

It does? Which point is that?
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Post by E II »

And I just realized I lost to ek...
:oops: ](*,) :boohoo: #-o
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