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 Post Post subject: Re: Mafia Round Eight (Day Two)
Posted: Mon Aug 13, 2012 12:21 pm 
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church wrote:
Oh, well that's 2 confirmed mafia then.
Actually, we have no confirmed Mafia. Everything is still speculation at this point. The only one that could be considered confirmed is if Max is indeed the one who received the investigation, making you the confirmed Mafia.

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 Post Post subject: Re: Mafia Round Eight (Day Three)
Posted: Mon Aug 13, 2012 12:55 pm 
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Church smiled at bookworm. Church knew he had him, and he could finally get revenge for his friend's death.

"Max is lieing about the investigation. No townie would do that. So why would a mafia lie about an investigation? The only reason I can see is to try to save another mafia. Which makes you and Max mafia."

Church sat back down in his chair and propped his feet up. He knew bookworm wouldn't be able to worm his weigh out of this one.

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 Post Post subject: Re: Mafia Round Eight (Day Three)
Posted: Mon Aug 13, 2012 1:02 pm 
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That is interesting speculation, Church. Though, it is not solid proof. For me, I am inclined to vote for Max. If he is Mafia, then that gives a greater chance that Bookworm will be mafia. If Max is not mafia and we kill bookworm and he is not mafia, then we killed off a valuable player.
Vote: Maxwell Smart

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 Post Post subject: Re: Mafia Round Eight (Day Three)
Posted: Mon Aug 13, 2012 1:05 pm 
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bookworm shook his head at church’s tone.
“There’s nothing to ‘worm out of’ everything is just hearsay. Why would you not believe Max? You’ve been calling for the reveal of the investigation all game, and now that you get it you reject it.”
After some brief thought, he answered his own question. “Oh of course, because the result isn’t in your favor.”

Seeing that time was once again running out, and thoughts were once more getting muddled with speculation, he attempted to refocus everyone.
“Please allow me to lay out the current situation. I don’t know if you’ll heed this, since if you think I’m guilty you’ll consider this propaganda, but it isn’t. I’m objectively stating where we stand.” He shot a meaningful look at church and added “This should also put to rest the idea that I only propagate ideas that hold me innocent.”

He gazed around at the remaining players. “As we stand now, we still do not know anything for certain at the moment, but after the next kill, whoever it is, we will be able to draw various conclusions depending on the outcome.

If I am killed about found to be Mafia, that does not provide evidence of Max’s guilt. This needs to be understood, because it’s an important context issue. Max has not said I am innocent, what he said was church is guilty. In a way that provides a defense for me, which I concede would make him appear suspicious if it falls through, but when you really look at it that doesn’t mean anything. So my fate should not be tied to his as an open and shut case.

If I am killed and found to be Town, then we still don’t know about Max, but it would be pretty clear that church is Mafia, since he is lobbying so insistently for my death.

If church is killed and found to be Mafia, it’s pretty much the inverse of the previous sentence.

If church is killed and found to be Town, then that is what would seal suspicions on Max because he claims the investigation came back Mafia.

Now here is where things get interesting.

If Max is killed and found to be the Receiving Cop, then we know his statement is truthful and church is Mafia. It also suggests that I am Town, since church is trying to take me out, but that’s not a guarantee. church’s side though, would be.

If Max is killed and found to not be the Receiving Cop, but just Town, that only makes things confusing. It means he wasn’t Mafia, but lied about the investigation for some reason. Why he would do that I have no idea, so that probably isn’t the case.

If Max is killed and found to be Mafia, then again he lied about the investigation and it most likely, not completely, but close enough for hypothetic purposes, proves church is innocent. Secondarily it may put more suspicion on me as well, but as in the first scenario that isn’t necessarily the case as, again, he never actually sided with me, he only accused church. It would depend on how one wishes to interpret his accusation, as at attack on church or as a defense of me.

Astronomer has an interesting idea, to give both church and myself the benefit of the doubt one more time, take Max out, and use that outcome to determine the next move. It seems like a good idea, since in the above scenarios Max’s death is the one that, either way it goes, reveals the most information, but at the same time that would give whoever actually is the Mafia, if he isn’t, one more move, so you’d have to weigh the risks there.”

Toward the end of his monologue, bookworm’s eyes lit up as if he had come across a revelation.

“I just realized something that may be significant! Consider this.
We don’t know why, if Max is telling the truth about being the Receiving Cop, he waited so long to come forward. Any explanation he gave would most likely not be enough for the hard skeptics. So we cannot rely on his word alone to prove the validity of his alleged investigation result.
However, it’s possible we can gain some insight from the investigation itself.

Remember who the Cop was, it was radgeek. And allegedly, she chose to investigate church. We know from past games that those two have a bit of a history, so I find it quite plausible that such an investigation would take place. If it were anyone else, I would think as most others have suggested, that I would have been a likely first investigation, but with radgeek it’s entirely possible for it to have been church. Not just possible, likely. Past games have shown what kind of relationship they have in these games, and have also shown that rad doesn’t tend to put those aside from game to game, even though it’s been pointed out that such patterns can become giveaways in future games. If this is true though, then in a rather ironic twist, that pattern would have been what possibly cracks this game open.”

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Last edited by bookworm on Mon Aug 13, 2012 1:39 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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 Post Post subject: Re: Mafia Round Eight (Day Three)
Posted: Mon Aug 13, 2012 2:28 pm 
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Church couldn't control his smile.

"I was hoping someone would bring that up. It's a very good guess that rad would investigate me first. She's got a strong history with me, and almost seems obsessed with killing me if she can. However," Church paused to savor this moment. "rad didn't know I was playing when she died. The first announcement of my playing was my first post here which was *after* her death. To get my role she would have had to choose to investigate Aeva. What are the odds that she would investigate Aeva over anyone else."

"This is what's going on. The mafia have made the calculation that if we get this lynch wrong the mafia will have the same number of people as the town. By almost every set of rules that would mean the town loses. Simply put, we lose if we get this lynch wrong. Which means we don't have time to test whether or not the investigation results are accurate. The mafia know that bookworm is the most likely person to die this round. There isn't even anyone left who has suspicions. They had to do something drastic to keep bookworm alive. So they came up with the investigation thinking they could sell Rad investigating me. They forgot that no one knew I was going to be playing until after Rad died."


Quote:
“There’s nothing to ‘worm out of’ everything is just hearsay. Why would you not believe Max? You’ve been calling for the reveal of the investigation all game, and now that you get it you reject it.”
After some brief thought, he answered his own question. “Oh of course, because the result isn’t in your favor.”


I said the investiagation results were pointless *before* Max said anything. Someone who pays attention like you would have known that and known it had nothing to do with what was revealed, but then, you're trying to spin all this to whatever kills a townie. Just like you would have realized we don't have time to test any of the conclusions if we are wrong."


"I agree that we should kill Max, however I would much rather get rid of bookworm first. It has a much better pay off than max and as bookworm is showing, he is very good at confusing the situation."

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 Post Post subject: Re: Mafia Round Eight (Day Three)
Posted: Mon Aug 13, 2012 5:52 pm 
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“I take issue with your last statements. You don’t know what I ‘would have’ noticed, this is another case of my misperceived infallibility. I did not see you discredit the investigation before. If you did I simply missed it, I wasn’t ignoring it. Nor did I realize that this was potentially the last day. I knew we were getting close to that, but I didn’t know this was actually it. If that is the case, then obviously I agree that we can’t wait to test out the investigation. But again, I wasn’t trying to spin things, it was an honest oversight. You say I’m good at confusing things, but in this case I am just as confused as anyone else seems to be. I was not the instigator, I was one of the victims.”

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 Post Post subject: Re: Mafia Round Eight (Day Three)
Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2012 6:29 pm 
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"Riddle me this bookworm. Why did you vote for for me? And don't say it was because I was most likely mafia. That's a conclusion, not a reason. I want to know why you decided to vote for me. I fully suspect you voted for me because I voted for you."

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 Post Post subject: Re: Mafia Round Eight (Day Three)
Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:25 pm 
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church wrote:
"I fully suspect you voted for me because I voted for you."
“You would be correct. But don’t try to say that proves my guilt, that would be absurd.
I have not suspected you of being Mafia once during this game, and I still don’t really. If you hadn’t started the vote, I would not have countered it.
At the moment I don’t highly suspect anyone, so there wasn’t a reason to vote for someone else over you.
As for why I voted for you specifically, yes it was because you voted for me. Not out of revenge, just to keep a balance stable while people hash things out.”

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 Post Post subject: Re: Mafia Round Eight (Day Three)
Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:14 pm 
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"Hmmm, just because I voted for you. Of all people around I figured you would go beyond the petty back and forth voting and work toward the good of the town. Didn't you yourself say that you or moontide should be dead right now? Should that give you some reason to suspect him above me?

And what about max? He had plenty of time to reveal an investigation resukt before now when it would have done some good. But no, according to him, he sat on knowing who a mafia was for 2 days without revealing it, letting 2 innocent people get lynched during it. Even today he posted *before* revealing the result. It's obvious the only reason he said anything is because I pointed a finger at you, not to save someone innocent, he has let 2 people die already, but solely because of you. Does that not make him more suspicious than me?

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 Post Post subject: Re: Mafia Round Eight (Day Three)
Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:24 pm 
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“It’s not petty and it is for the good of the Town. Back and forth voting would be a revenge motivated countervote. All I did was tally one vote to keep things even for the time being, I will certainly change it later if more evidence is presented. At the moment I’m just attempting to keep things at a tie so if there doesn’t end up being a breakthrough it’s possible there won’t be a disaster either.

When you put it that way, it does make Moontide a little suspicious. I had just been thinking perhaps the Mafia weren’t, shall we say the most experienced, no offense, to realize he’s one of the greater threats. And I wasn’t going to spell it out like that because if it was the case of course I didn’t want to give them any hints. But you’re right, the other possibility is that he’s Mafia himself. Not being a target during the night, and being seen as an asset during the day, would explain his longevity. I’ll have to think on that.

As for Max, I don’t know. You say it’s obvious that his motivation was saving me, I’m not so sure. But even if it was, does that mean he’s Mafia? Suppose he’s telling the truth. For whatever reason he kept quiet for the past few days, your guess is as good as mine why, and he now finally comes forward when the crosshairs get around to me. Yes it’s to save me, but is that such a guilty move? If he thinks I’m Town, then it’s somewhat logical that he would choose this moment to speak up. Perhaps he was saving that information for when it could be best used. I would say if we’re going to scrutinize him further, the potentially suspicious part is not why he spoke up now, but why he didn’t before.”

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Last edited by bookworm on Wed Aug 15, 2012 1:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post Post subject: Re: Mafia Round Eight (Day Three)
Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2012 2:36 pm 
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Why he didn't speak up before and why he didn't before is the same thing.

And yes, it is such a guilty move. He's lieing to cover you. That's a very guilty move.

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 Post Post subject: Re: Mafia Round Eight (Day Three)
Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2012 5:07 pm 
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“Only if he is lying. You don’t know, that’s what I’ve been saying. And you can’t find out, because the only way to know would be to kill you, and obviously you won’t go for that.”

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 Post Post subject: Re: Mafia Round Eight (Day Three)
Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2012 5:12 pm 
I'll catch up to Bren!
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Well, church actually does know whether or not Max is lying, because he knows his role, whatever that may be.

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 Post Post subject: Re: Mafia Round Eight (Day Three)
Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2012 5:16 pm 
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“Well yes obviously he knows, but no one besides him can take his word on it.”

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 Post Post subject: Re: Mafia Round Eight (Day Three)
Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2012 5:18 pm 
I'll catch up to Bren!
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Well, you said "You don't know, that's what I've been saying"

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 Post Post subject: Re: Mafia Round Eight (Day Three)
Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2012 5:21 pm 
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“I was speaking from the viewpoint of the Town as a whole, as is usual. Obviously for any situation there is one person that knows the full truth, the person it’s about. In the current situation church knows what side he is, but whichever it is he’s going to claim it’s Town obviously. That’s what I meant. He’s claiming Max is lying about church being Mafia, but since he’s the one involved his word can’t stand for anything. So the only way to know would be for him to die.”

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 Post Post subject: Re: Mafia Round Eight (Day Three)
Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2012 6:20 pm 
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Yes, *I* know he is lieing but you can't take my word for it. What you can do is see if what he says makes any sense.

He gets *my* role claiming rad investigated me. Yet rad didn't even know I was playing until *after* she died.
He doesn't say anything the first day despite knowing who a mafia member is.
He let JC die, who is the jailkeeper, our most powerful role.
He didn't speak up the next day even with the calls for the results to be revealed.
He let KF die, and it was only because bookworm's vote was devided did he not get lynched.
He didn't speak up today either.
He only spoke up when it looked like bookworm could die.
And, the person who is mafia and was investigated has been the strongest voice to reveal the results and was trying to keep JC from getting lynched.

Even if I didn't know he was lieing, that I would assume he was from that mountain of evidence against him.

So what would someone's motivation for lieing about that? Either to kill me, or to keep bookworm alive. Even bookworm has said there's no reason to suspect I'm mafia, so if he's trying to kill me it's because he's trying to kill off a townie. If he's trying to save bookworm, he is either a townie who is risking his life to keep someone alive who has legitimate arguments against him for being mafia, and is willing to kill a townie in order to do it, or he is a mafia who is trying to save a fellow mafia from getting lynched and kill a townie in the process.

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 Post Post subject: Re: Mafia Round Eight (Day Three)
Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2012 6:27 pm 
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“I see where you’re coming from church, and you make some good points, but it’s not as completely open and shut as that.”
church wrote:
He gets *my* role claiming rad investigated me. Yet rad didn't even know I was playing until *after* she died.
“She investigated whoever you replaced. Just because he said you doesn’t mean he meant you specifically. It’s you now.”
church wrote:
He doesn't say anything the first day despite knowing who a mafia member is.
“At that time we were undecided whether revealing it was the right move, so hesitation is understandable. Especially since there wouldn’t have been anything else to strengthen the case against you. Had it not worked out, he would have come forward for nothing.”
church wrote:
He let JC die, who is the jailkeeper, our most powerful role.
“JCGJ could have been lying, just as you could be. The way he role claimed at the last minute seemed pretty desperate, despite being true.”

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 Post Post subject: Re: Mafia Round Eight (Day Three)
Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2012 8:20 pm 
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"However, he wasn't lying. He was the jailkeeper, and max did let him die. And no, if he came forward with the results one of two things would have happened. I would have been lynched, or max would have been lynched and if he were telling the truth, I would be lynched the next day.

Quote:
“She investigated whoever you replaced. Just because he said you doesn’t mean he meant you specifically. It’s you now.”


Excellent point. I replaced Aeva. What are the odds she investigated Aeva?

You yourself said you were the most likely focus of her investigation.

Quote:
If it were anyone else, I would think as most others have suggested, that I would have been a likely first investigation


Since I am leaving at some point tomorrow and may not be able to post much over the weekend, I'm going to make my big argument here.

Church paused to savor this moment. He would finally bring to justice one of the people who were responsible for rad's death.

For bookworm to be INNOCENT these would have to be true:


Bookworm fully believed that JC was the best person to lynch because JC said he would burn some toothpicks if he were mafia.

AND

Bookworm believed that not revealing the investigation results the first day was in the best interest of the town

AND

The mafia decided not to kill him the after the jailkeeper was dead

AND

Bookworm fully believed that KF was mafia and did not vote for him simply because KF voted for bookworm (note that the very next post after KF's vote for bookworm was bookworm voting for KF)

Also note that he fully believed and was the first to vote for 2 completely innocent townies

AND

the mafia decided again that it was not in their best interest to kill bookworm

AND

Bookworm beleived it was in the best interest of the town to vote for someone he didn't think was mafia (me)

AND

Max decided to let innocent people die in order to... I can't come up with any good reason for that.

AND

Max beleives strongly enough that bookworm is innocent to break his silence or lie about being the receiving cop despite strong arguments against bookworm

AND

a mafia was trying to keep JC alive

AND

A mafia pointed out that there was the investigation result and wanted it revealed as soon as possible"


Church gave a sly smile to bookworm. "People aren't stupid. You can only manipulate and twist things for so long before they realize you've only been killing townies and go after people who think you're mafia. It's time you reap what you sowed."

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 Post Post subject: Re: Mafia Round Eight (Day Three)
Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2012 8:48 pm 
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